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In this asynchronous short course, Dr. Hal Stern introduces fundamental concepts from probability and statistics –– motivated by forensic issues –– followed by a detailed investigation of how they apply to assess forensic evidence’s probative value. The four sections of the course are further broken down to provide easily-digestible pieces to for learners to consume at their own pace.

Section 1: Probability Concepts and their Relevance to Forensic Science

• Definition and interpretation of probability
• Basic laws of probability
• Conditional probability and independence of events
• Bayes' Theorem and the likelihood ratio

Section 2: Sampling, Statistics and the Status Quo

• Collecting data
• Measurement, variability, reliability and accuracy
• Forensic evidence evaluation as expert opinion / black box studies

Section 3: Statistical Inference and the Two-Stage Approach to Assessing Forensic Evidence

• Estimation, confidence intervals, significance tests
• Two-stage approach (significance test / coincidence probability

Section 4: The Likelihood Ratio Approach - Strengths and Weaknesses

• Introducing the likelihood Ratio
• Examples - the good, the bad, and the ugly